What does 2010 have in store for us, or the opinions of experts and analysts about the prospects for the consumer goods market.
The economic crisis took the world market by surprise, and so far not all industries have been able to recover. The security industry is no exception, but there are already hopes for better things associated with the development of certain technologies. Let’s try to track them down.
Although most economies around the world are showing signs of recovery, the outlook for physical and technical security is rather mixed. According to IMS Research, the global video surveillance market grew by a rough estimate of 3% in 2009, well below the usual double-digit growth rates. Total revenue (at the manufacturer level) is estimated at US$8.8 billion, with IP growing 15%.
Due to the widespread decline in commercial and private real estate construction, sales of access control and security alarm systems have declined significantly. Early forecasts showed little growth, hovering around 2.1 and 2.2 billion, respectively.
2009 did not bring any innovative ideas and solutions; everywhere there were only sales of goods previously put into production and freezing of budgets, including for R&D. However, a number of revolutionary technologies can still be seen on the horizon today. And in a couple of years, perhaps, they will mature and appear on the market.
Therefore, in 2010 the following can be predicted:
1. John Honovich, founder of the online resource IPVideoMarket.info, projects that “sales of IP video surveillance solutions will grow 200% between 2010 and 2012, significantly undermining and outpacing sales of analog CCTV systems,” thanks to falling prices for IP solutions, improvement of technical characteristics and availability of offers with a good price/quality ratio. However, IP growth is highly dependent on the availability of partners providing telecommunications services and communication channels. And here the status quo is not very promising, since there are not enough competent candidates for this role in different markets. Fortunately, the increasing participation of players such as Cisco Systems and Ingram Micro and the increase in training courses and programs should improve the situation, albeit slowly.
2. The use of hybrid solutions will continue to grow, as users, with reduced funding, will still look for ways to expand existing security systems. Research firm In-Stat finds that DVR shipments are growing faster than camera shipments, with more growth in the share of hybrid DVRs. The capabilities of HDcctv (high-definition video surveillance systems) will be tested and used in narrow niches.
3. In the post-crisis world, the buyer will study only offers that are cost-effective and effective in terms of price/quality ratio and choose more carefully. Simple and cheap solutions from Asia will become increasingly popular, and the demand for systems with additional capabilities, for example, video analytics and video verification of alarm events, will also increase.
4. Megapixel and panoramic cameras provide an advantage in terms of price/quality ratio (TCO technique), but their performance in poor lighting, as well as methods of compression and transmission of information, will remain the main disadvantages. However, sales growth is expected (from 65% to 100% according to IMS) and the emergence of new players in the market. Solutions based on the H.264 codec will be more in demand, but suppliers who cheat on the profile/resolution difference will suffer and gradually leave the market.
5. Issues of reliable performance, especially outdoors, ease of use and configuration, price and flexibility of video analytics capabilities are not solved overnight and will therefore limit its growth and widespread adoption. Today’s market size is estimated by analysts and major manufacturers to be between $50 million and $145 million, with IMS predicting that up to 450,000 video analytics channels will be included in cameras, encoders, DVRs and NVRs by 2013.
6. IMS predicts that the overall safety management systems market will reach $728 million by 2011, while Frost & Sullivan predicts 2 billion by 2012. Physical security management systems will continue to address issues of integration and interoperability, as developing common standards and interoperability protocols takes time and effort. In the short term, only government agencies involved in public procurement will be able to afford such solutions.
7. The HDcctv, ONVIF and PSIA Alliance technical specifications will continue to evolve and be supported by more manufacturers, but integrators and users will demand more detail as different, non-parallel network technologies increasingly overlap and new interoperability standards are required. This process will gradually begin in 2011.
8. Sales of fiber optic and wireless technologies will grow rapidly, providing the opportunity for simultaneous operation of video surveillance, access control and security systems in one information environment. Use in large-scale projects, for example in the educational system and in the creation of various infrastructures (air/sea/land transport systems, electricity supply, city video surveillance and state border protection), will bring great profits. With upcoming global sporting events, the recreational market (sports facilities, large arenas and venues, retail, etc.) will grow.
9. IMS predicts that the global fingerprint device market will reach 650 million by 2013. Frost & Sullivan believes that in the EMEA region the market will recover and reach $1.7 billion by 2015 (versus $351 million in 2008, with annual growth of 25.5%). Both markets for low-cost and professional solutions (tailored to precise requirements) will grow significantly due to the resumption of construction projects and government programs (including national biometric passports), as well as the integration of logical and physical solutions.