What 2010 has in store for us, or opinions of experts and analysts on the prospects of the TSB market.
The economic crisis took the world market by surprise, and so far not all industries have been able to recover.
The security industry is no exception, but there are already hopes for the best, which are associated with the development of certain technologies.
Let's try to trace them.
While most economies around the world are showing signs of recovery, the outlook for physical and technical security is mixed.
According to IMS Research, the global video surveillance market grew roughly 3% in 2009, well below the usual double-digit growth rates.
Total revenue (at the manufacturer level) is estimated at US$8.8 billion, with IP technology growing by 15%.
Due to the general decline in the volume of construction of commercial and private real estate, the volume of sales of access control systems and security alarms has significantly decreased.
Early forecasts showed insignificant growth and fluctuated at around 2.1 and 2.2 billion, respectively.
2009 did not bring any innovative ideas and solutions, everywhere there were only sales of previously launched goods and freezing of budgets, including for R&D.
However, a number of revolutionary technologies can still be seen on the horizon today.
And in a couple of years, perhaps, they will mature and appear on the market.
Therefore, in 2010, the following can be predicted:
1. John Honovich, founder of IPVideoMarket.info, predicts that “IP video surveillance sales will grow 200% from 2010 to 2012, significantly undermining and outpacing analog CCTV sales,” thanks to falling IP prices, improved specifications, and the availability of value-for-money offerings.
However, IP growth is highly dependent on the availability of partners providing telecommunications services and communication channels. Here, the status quo is not very promising, as there are not enough competent candidates in various markets to fill this role.
Fortunately, the growing involvement of players like Cisco Systems and Ingram Micro, and the increase in training and programs, should improve the situation, albeit slowly.
2. Hybrid solutions will continue to grow as users, with reduced budgets, still look for ways to expand their existing security systems.
Research firm In-Stat believes that DVR shipments are growing faster than camera shipments, with hybrid DVRs growing significantly. The capabilities of HDcctv (high-definition video surveillance systems) will be tested and used in narrow niches.
3. In the post-crisis world, buyers will only study cost-effective and value-for-money offers and choose more carefully.
Simple and cheap solutions from Asia will become increasingly popular, and demand for systems with additional capabilities, such as video analytics and video variability of alarm events, will increase.
4. Megapixel and panoramic cameras provide an advantage in terms of price/quality (TCO method), but their performance in low light, as well as methods of compression and transmission of information will remain the main disadvantages.
However, sales growth is expected (from 65% to 100% according to IMS) and the emergence of new players in the market. H.264-based solutions will be in greater demand, but suppliers who “cheat” on the profile/resolution difference will suffer and gradually leave the market.
5. Issues of reliable operation, especially outdoors, ease of use and setup, price and flexibility of video analytics capabilities are not resolved overnight and therefore will restrain its growth and widespread adoption.
Today's market size is estimated by analysts and major manufacturers to be between $50 million and $145 million, with IMS predicting that up to 450,000 channels of video analytics will be included in cameras, encoders, DVRs, and NVRs by 2013.
6. IMS predicts that the overall security management systems market will reach $728 million by 2011, while Frost & Sullivan predicts $2 billion by 2012.
Physical security management systems will continue to address issues of integration and interoperability, as developing common standards and protocols for interaction takes time and effort. In the near term, only government agencies involved in public procurement will be able to afford such solutions.
7. The technical specifications of the HDcctv, ONVIF and PSIA alliance will continue to evolve and will be supported by an even greater number of manufacturers, but integrators and users will demand more details as various, non-parallel network technologies increasingly overlap and new compatibility standards are required. This process will gradually begin in 2011.
8. Sales of fiber optic and wireless technologies will grow rapidly, providing the ability to simultaneously operate video surveillance, access control and security systems in a single information environment.
The use in large-scale projects such as education and various infrastructures (air/maritime/land transportation, power supply, urban video surveillance and border security) will bring great profits.
With the upcoming global sporting events, the recreational market (sports facilities, large arenas and grounds, retail, etc.) will grow.
9. IMS predicts that the global market for fingerprint devices will reach 650 million by 2013. Frost & Sullivan believes that the EMEA market will recover to reach $1.7 billion by 2015 (from $351 million in 2008, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 25.5%).
Both the low-cost and high-end (specific requirements) markets will grow significantly, driven by a resurgence in construction projects and government programs (including national biometric passports), as well as the integration of logical and physical solutions.