Video surveillance in 2011. World forecast and comments.
For several years now, analysts from IMS Research have been issuing forecasts for the development of the world video surveillance market in the first days of the new year. What are the main trends in the development of video surveillance predicted for 2011?
We present to your attention excerpts from the publication IMS Research «Video Surveillance Trends for 2011.»
Wireless Solutions for Urban Video Surveillance.
Their popularity will increase due to several factors: firstly, the lower cost of infrastructure, compared to traditional construction of communications, and secondly, the possibility of use in culturally significant areas, for example, in the city's historical center.
Economic conditions also play into the hands of wireless video surveillance as a more flexible solution: moving cameras to another site in some cases seems more profitable than buying new ones.
Safe City is the fastest growing vertical market for wireless video surveillance. It is also used to transmit live video from police cars to control centers. This connection between mobile and fixed points can greatly assist law enforcement.
The only potential problem for this market sector, analysts believe, is the competence of system integrators, but they predict that over time more and more companies will begin to engage in wireless video surveillance technologies.
HD CCTV to find its niche in 2011
The HD CCTV Alliance, formed in 2009 to develop an open standard for high-definition video surveillance, includes companies that develop and manufacture complete equipment.
It is expected that in 2011, with their help, various brands of video surveillance products will begin supplying HD solutions.
The use of coaxial cable to transmit images in HD CCTV suggests that high-definition video surveillance products will find their niche in upgrading video surveillance systems at sites with existing infrastructure.
2010 saw a significant increase in the supply of HD and megapixel cameras.
The demand for high-definition video surveillance will maintain this position in 2010, with a bias towards HD, since this technology allows for high image resolution, but not to such a level that storing and transmitting images becomes impossible.
IMS Research predicts that by 2015, more than 60% of all cameras supplied will be HD and megapixel.
Video Surveillance as a Service.
The emergence of the concept of «Video Surveillance as a Service», based on cloud data processing, in 2010 attracted the interest of video surveillance companies.
Remote access to video, ease of connection and relatively low cost of the system will be growth factors for this market segment in 2011.
IMS Research analysts predict that “Video Surveillance as a Service” has higher potential in certain areas of application, for example, if the customer needs to monitor a large number of objects with two or three cameras at each (retail, oil platforms, electrical substations.)
To move beyond small installations and overcome the dominance of analog systems and DVRs, companies providing «Video Surveillance as a Service» are encouraged to include energy management, point of sale management, home automation and access control in user applications.
Video Analytics: New Markets
While the video analytics segment did not see the expected growth in 2010, IMS Research predicts new opportunities for this segment.
They are mostly outside the traditional use of video analytics in security systems. For example, video analytics is expected to be used in the automotive industry, defense, medicine, commerce, and video advertising.
For example, a video surveillance system can recognize drowsiness based on a driver’s posture and gait, and in the case of video advertising, it can determine certain personal characteristics of people in order to display advertising targeted to a specific consumer.
While the use of video analytics in all of these markets is still in its infancy, the opportunities for vendors of such products in them are undeniable.
From HD to 3D.
Could 3D, like HD, become the next hot trend in the video surveillance industry?
In 2010, the first examples of 3D technology being used in video surveillance appeared, and at ASIS 2010, several vendors presented products for 3D video surveillance.
But are these new developments really worth the benefits?
The main advantage of this technology is that it provides a new dimension, and thus allows for more accurate algorithms for analytics.
A good example is the difference between flat and volumetric objects: being able to measure depth, one can distinguish a shadow from the object itself.
However, IMS Research does not support the idea of widespread adoption of 3D technology among vendors and consumers.
The main restraining factors are high cost, lack of support, and technological conservatism.
However, many manufacturers will begin to experiment with 3D technology.
2011: a turning point for IP video surveillance.
While the speed of development of IP video surveillance technology is beyond doubt, the question remains: when will sales in this sector exceed sales of analog products?
There is no exact answer to this question.
In a global sense, this turn is unlikely to happen before 2015.
Although for the American continent, another date is named — 2013, and for the European region — 2012.
It is predicted that in the Russian market, IP sales will exceed analog equipment sales already in 2011.
There are also differences in different areas of application: for example, in airports, ports and urban infrastructure, IP video surveillance is expected to prevail by 2012; in the educational sphere, this result was achieved back in 2010, but in retail and banking, there is a noticeable lag.
The main recommendation that analysts at IMS Research give for popularizing IP technology is to increase awareness, both for consumers and for system integrators.
Since the decisive factor in choosing a system is often the cost, the circle of consumers can be expanded by reducing prices for equipment and introducing alternative business models (for example, «Video Surveillance as a Service»).
Warming in the thermal imaging market.
The use of thermal imaging cameras for video surveillance to protect important facilities such as airports, nuclear power plants, gas pipelines, and state borders is a fairly common occurrence.
The innovation of 2010 was a new technology for thermal imaging cameras, which allowed many vendors to engage in their development.
This trend will continue in 2011. It is expected that the prices of thermal imagers will decrease significantly due to new technologies that will reduce the use of expensive materials.
At the same time, it is also expected that due to the growth in demand for thermal imagers and the expansion of sales markets, companies that previously manufactured these products will be able to avoid direct competition with new vendors.
Commentary from specialists at DataLink.
This forecast is quite good for the Western and American markets.
With the forecast for the Ukrainian market, given its development in 2010, everything is a little different.
Wireless solutions for urban video surveillance.
There are many controversial issues regarding the security of the radio channel, its range, receiving equipment, power supply of wireless cameras.
Will the wireless system be suitable for each case separately, since the main requirement for it will be range, obstacle penetration, resistance to interference and interference.
From our tests, the range of a standard mid-priced camera in an office with plasterboard walls without signal loss was about 5 meters, and the only obstacle was one wall.
At a greater distance with 3 obstacles (approximately 16 meters), there was no signal at all.
So to work at long distances, receivers with external antennas are needed for high-quality signal reception. Another important question is the power supply of the camera itself, whether it will be autonomous or from the network.
HD CCTV will take its place in 2011.
High-resolution video surveillance has quite tempting parameters of 720 lines, but, alas, it is absolutely incompatible with existing classic video surveillance systems and requires the replacement of all cameras and video recorders. And this does not allow for flexible changes or expansion of an existing system.
Video surveillance as a service.
Our recorders have the CMS program and on its basis you can build a fairly good remote viewing system.
And integration into other systems, such as smart home, access control systems and other automation, seems impractical. It will entail the development and debugging of a lot of additional interface devices and software.
Video analytics: new markets.
Undoubtedly, video analytics should be integrated into video surveillance.
But there are many gaps here: if everything is more or less good with text and symbol recognition, then for correct recognition of images and faces, high-resolution cameras are needed so that the program can process the frame and give a decision with a higher probability of correctness.
Analog cameras do not provide such quality.
And programs for recognizing images and faces are still in the development stage, they do not always work correctly when changing the angle and lighting.
So we still have to wait until video analytics systems are brought to the stage of productive operation.
From HD to 3D.
HD hasn't really taken hold here, and we haven't fully figured out IP yet. Will such a complex system as 3D be in demand, and most importantly, will it justify the investment? A number of questions also arise regarding cameras, processing and storing material, and software.
2011: a turning point for IP video surveillance.
It is difficult to draw such conclusions, after all, this is not a fully explored area. Integrating an IP video surveillance system with a small number of cameras is not very difficult. Integrating a system with a large number of cameras (for example, 30 cameras) causes some difficulties. The main ones are the high cost, the architecture of the design, the storage and video processing systems for such a number of cameras.
Warming in the thermal imager market.
For our market, a thermal imager is a promising method of video surveillance, but it has not received wide application due to its high cost, with the exception of use at some specific sites.
Commentary by Vasiliy Natoka, ISTAGRUPP
According to research conducted by Frost & Sullivan, by 2012 the volume of the European market for video surveillance products will be approximately one and a half billion dollars. In China it is approximately the same (IMSresearch). In India — 160 million, in Ukraine approximately 30 million dollars.
The main customers are retail chains, banks, petrol station chains, and to some extent business centres, hotels and industrial enterprises. There is another customer – the government. In London, for example, more than 10,000 surveillance cameras have been installed.
According to RBC-Ukraine, a similar project, with tens of thousands of cameras on major streets, transport interchanges, administrative buildings and in residential areas, was also announced in Kyiv. Allegedly, 64 million hryvnias were even allocated for it in 2006, and the entire program was designed to last until 2010. Everyone probably knows how the “young” team managed the money.
As for the private customer market, it is simply not serious to talk about anything serious here.
I will refer to the study and expert's conclusion: «Having assessed the existing market of modern security systems in our city from the point of view of life cycle stages, we can conclude that the equipment in question is currently experiencing a growth stage with its characteristic growing number of product consumers, an increase in the variety of product range.
Since security systems are not essential products and most people do not have an urgent need to buy them, demand for them can be considered elastic. This type of demand is characterized by a large change in demand volumes with a small change in prices.»
As for the IMS Research forecast itself:
«Wireless solutions for urban video surveillance.»
In theory, the message is correct, but in our reality, it sounds like a mere wish. Moreover, I have no doubt that another 64 million hryvnia will be allocated.
«HD CCTV will take its niche in 2011».
Indeed, we are noticing an increase in demand for equipment of this class, while the level of orders is unlikely to satisfy suppliers, and the prices of customers. However, as a trend, this process is taking place.
«Video surveillance as a service».
I think this is a very promising direction. Today, such a market exists and is actively developing. In principle, this market segment is practically free in Ukraine today, and whoever is the first to put up an “umbrella” will receive a significant competitive advantage.
«Video analytics: new markets».
Video analytics has not yet lived up to the expectations associated with it.
The snag is not in the hardware or software, from the customer's point of view there is no understanding and awareness of the need for its implementation, and therefore it is impossible to formulate a technical task. In general, in the section of explanatory and educational activities there is still an unplowed field for suppliers.
In addition, there are legislative issues with its implementation and practical use. Here, when deploying video surveillance as a service, and within its framework, providing analytical data, this is possible and attractive.
«From HD to 3D».
I agree that possible active implementation is a matter of the future. Without the initial active development of video analytics, it seems premature to me to talk about 3D.
«2011: A Turning Point for IP Video Surveillance».
I think we've already passed this point. The entire world faces the problem of servicing, operating and upgrading the huge fleet of existing systems on analog cameras. Our volumes are incomparable.
Therefore, for example, the disappearance of video recorders, and with them cassettes as devices for archiving video information from security practice went unnoticed by the general public in Ukraine.
In this regard, the introduction of IP surveillance is very timely and harmonious, while the existing means of processing the video signal allow its joint operation with analog television cameras, so that the customer does not have problems when expanding and upgrading existing video surveillance systems.
«Warming on the thermal imager market».
Here I also agree with the authors, customers are already reluctantly paying for these expensive devices.
And although the level of equipment orders leaves much to be desired, the service market is developing quite rapidly here. Throughout the second half of last year, we actively examined the state of thermal insulation of private houses, the quality of heated floors and roofs.
We checked the state of heat and electricity at industrial enterprises. Foresters, hunters, yachtsmen, motorists, builders, and commercial real estate experts appreciated and actively ordered thermal imaging systems as a service.
Comment by Alexander Volk, MICRODIGITAL UKRAINE.
«Wireless solutions for urban video surveillance».
Digital formats use the IP protocol for video surveillance. And wireless access, biometrics, and software for intelligent video image analysis are becoming increasingly widespread.
The use of wireless solutions provides new opportunities for optimizing life processes, and megacities will be no exception.
The competence of the company integrating the wireless solution will play a key role.
«HD CCTV will take its place in 2011».
Yes! Obtaining a highly detailed image with the ability to subsequently scale allows you to analyze individual areas of the frame: for example, to recognize a car number or the face of an intruder.
Undoubtedly, this is a breakthrough and a new stage in the development of CCTV, as a fundamentally new level of quality has been achieved.
In fact, the thesis that the quality of a video system is determined by the quality of the weakest element of the system is becoming a thing of the past due to the absence of a weak link. The price may be a limiting factor in choosing, since the cost of an HD video system remains high compared to an analog video surveillance system.
«Video Surveillance as a Service».
A video surveillance system operating on the «as a service» principle will transmit all information via the Internet to a remote server. Processing and storage of information will occur on it.
For now, many people still prefer video recorders to receive and store information. But this niche of video surveillance has a promising future.
«Video analytics: new markets».
Video analytics — sounds great…
Facial recognition software is crude and imperfect. There are no specialists. Sometimes even the customer himself cannot explain his “wants”. There is no point in putting it on paper…
From HD to 3D.
All this is real. Perhaps in the future 3D will start to displace analog and digital, but there is no need to “run in front of the train”.
The emphasis is still on mastering what already exists at the moment: IP video surveillance and HD CCTV.
2011: a turning point for IP video surveillance.
Vague doubts plague me that in 2011 IP equipment sales will exceed analog. IP solutions from many manufacturers leave much to be desired. There are not many competent specialists in this area, so a boom in the market should not be expected.
Yes, analog video surveillance will give way to digital, but gradually and not in 2011.
«Warming in the Thermal Imager Market».
A promising and very specific niche for work. It is important to explain to each customer the need to use thermal imagers at sites. The information vacuum regarding these devices is having an effect.